sekar nallalu Cryptocurrency,John M. Mason America’s Fiscal Future: What’s The Solution?

America’s Fiscal Future: What’s The Solution?

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highdog/E+ via Getty Images The articles are getting more frequent and are appearing in highlighted parts of the media output. Wednesday, June 26, one of the major Wall Street Journal opinion writers, William A. Galston, leads off with his view on “The National Debt Crisis Is Coming.” No waffling here! Mr. Galston puts it right out there where everyone can read. “The National Debt Crisis Is Coming.” Mr. Galston concludes that “Continuing on our current fiscal course will mean a gradual loss of America’s financial independence, followed by an abrupt economic decline. The U.S. will have to ask the rest of the world to finance its debt, and it’s reckless to assume that other nations will do so indefinitely.” “We have to recognize the consequences of these realities and start taking steps to secure America’s fiscal future.” The problem is… I don’t see anyone really moving to do something about the growing national debt. It’s election time. Politicians only have one goal…to get elected…or…to get re-elected. Balancing budgets, or, at least, reducing budget deficits, just does not sell to someone who is seeking to get elected…or seeking to get re-elected. And, that is why the problem is not a Democratic problem. The problem is not a Republican problem. I have been writing in Seeking Alpha over the past ten years or so that the aggregate economic problem has been caused by the fact that there is just no let-up in the push for economic stimulation. In their turn, each party steps up and rallies the votes to support programs that, in one way or another, stimulate economic activity. When did this situation arise? Well, I would have to go back to the 1960s. This is not just a current phenomenon. To get elected or re-elected, it became important for candidates to show that they wanted to reduce unemployment. This was the whole approach of presidential candidate John F. Kennedy and his band of economic advisors, pushing for a Keynesian tax cut. Low unemployment became the focus of both parties. In the late 1960s, President Richard M. Nixon argued that “We are all Keynesians now,” as he pushed to get re-elected by keeping the economy growing. Over the years, the approaches of the two parties solidified and policies were presented by both sides of the spectrum that produced similar results. Ruchir Sharma captures this situation in his new book “What Went Wrong With Capitalism,” just published by Simon & Schuster. Mr. Sharma writes, “From 1980 on, Republicans would propose tax cuts as the solution to every problem, claiming they would pay for themselves by generating more economic growth.” “Democrats would make the same case for spending on schools, health, or subsidies for manufacturing, arguing that social spending is ‘an investment’ in the future.” The problem? “Either way, growth in the economy never kept up.” Yet, fiscal policy became the continuous foundation of the economy. Monetary policy had to keep the economy growing. The policy coming out of this I have called “credit inflation” and I have been writing about it for at least ten years. Following the end of the Great Recession, the policy of credit inflation produced the longest period of economic expansion since the Second World War. Fiscal policy looked like this as the budget deficits came in all over the place. Federal Surplus or Deficit (Federal Reserve) I have taken this chart back to 1960 to show just how volatile the federal deficit has been in recent years. And what did monetary policy look like during the decade following the Great Recession? Securities Held Outright (Federal Reserve) This shows how the number of securities held outright in the portfolio of the Federal Reserve performed during this decade. The Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of “quantitative easing” during this time to make sure that economic growth was supported. The growth of real GDP during this period? Real Gross Domestic Product (Federal Reserve) Could the policymakers have asked for much more? The unemployment rate hit a fifty-year low during this time period. And, so, the policymakers are trying to get back into a narrative of “credit inflation” for the current time period. But, the deficit is growing and growing and growing. And, the national debt is growing and growing and growing. The problem…as Mr. Galston writes, “The National Debt Crisis Is Coming.” The question is…when? “Continuing on our current fiscal course will mean a gradual loss of America’s financial independence followed by an abrupt economic decline.” OK. Turn that into a political issue that the politicians will deal with…and, will deal with soon. The headlines in the news seem to be all about the fact that people are not convinced that the U.S. economy is doing that well. Politicians seeking election, or, re-election, are not going to want to discuss programs that will cut the deficits now being projected. Does the “crisis” have to come before people can realistically talk about resolving the budget imbalance? Do people really have to get hurt by an economic disaster before something is done about the national debt? But, then if unemployment rises dramatically, people are going to want to talk about more stimulus to get the unemployment rate falling again. The trouble with a “lack of discipline” is that there never is really a “good time” for the situation to be corrected. Introducing discipline into a situation where discipline has been allowed to lapse is one of the harder things to do in life. So, who is going to step up and turn things around?

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